Preview | Will the Spanish GP once again reveal the eventual F1 world champion?

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya

The circuit in Montmeló, Catalonia, has been a part of Formula 1 since 1991. Until then the Spanish Grand Prix was held at Jerez, and before that circuits like Jarama, Montjuïc and Pedralbes were used. Since 1991 Barcelona has held the honour of hosting the Spanish Grand Prix for 30 editions and that is not for nothing.

The Spanish circuit has no secrets anymore for any team now that they have been testing there for years. The Formula 1 teams visit the track during the winter test so everything is already known in the database of the teams. Besides all the data, it is also a very representative circuit, with all kinds of corners. However, in 2021 Formula 1 opted to run testing in Bahrain. A slight change has also been made to the circuit. 

That the circuit is representative for the rest of the season is also clear from the figures of the last 30 years. 19 times the man on pole was the eventual world champion, and 18 times the winner of the race was also the world champion. If we look at the teams it is even worse. 21 times the team that would deliver the world champion won in Spain, and in 26 of the 30 qualifying sessions, pole was taken by the team with the eventual world champion. So pay close attention this weekend.

Spanish Grand Prix 2020

Also at the 2020 Spanish Grand Prix, the ranking really became clear in Barcelona. With Lewis Hamilton right in front of Valtteri Bottas on pole, and Max Verstappen over seven-tenths behind on P3. Racing Point, with Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll, took the fourth and fifth spots, ahead of Alexander Albon.

On Sunday, the picture was not very different. Hamilton drove to victory with relative ease, while Verstappen managed to beat Bottas to P2. A familiar phenomenon. However, this year Red Bull seems to be closer to Mercedes and were even faster in Imola and Bahrain. Will we see that again at the 2021 race?

Formula 1 2021

Red Bull Racing have been able to make some progress thanks to minor adjustments to the regulations. Where Mercedes have been able to dominate the past few seasons, Red Bull Racing have secured a pole and a win in the first three races. Both performances were achieved by Max Verstappen, who is the biggest threat to Hamilton in the standings.

With Bahrain, Imola and Portugal, we've had three completely different tracks and conditions, and we've also seen clear differences in how competitive the teams have been. Red Bull was better in Bahrain and in the qualifying of Imola and Portugal. Mercedes seemed to have the better car in the races in Imola and Portugal. Who will have the upper hand in Spain, or will it be even closer now?

Weather forecast

For the Grand Prix weekend in Spain, we can expect fairly normal conditions. It will be between 19 and 21 degrees all weekend, and on Friday and Saturday, the chance of rain is less than 20 percent. On Sunday the chance of rain is 45 percent according to Weather.com. But then it remains to be seen if and when the rain will actually fall.

Spanish GP 2021 forecast

Until the weekend in Bahrain, Red Bull's RB16B seemed to have a slight edge over Mercedes' W12. Mercedes were slightly better on the tyres on Sunday, but Red Bull were able to get more speed out of them, especially over one lap. In Portugal, it all seemed different, but that was mainly due to the cold temperatures and slippery tarmac.

That slippery tarmac helped Mercedes a lot in Portugal because they have big problems saving the rear tyres. This made them look much better than they really are. In Spain, the tarmac is heavier and the track is already very hard on tyres. This should be to Red Bull's advantage. Also, overtaking is almost impossible at this track, so pole for Verstappen will most likely mean victory as well.

The main roles this weekend will again be played by Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas. If Red Bull has the fastest car, Perez should manage to qualify ahead of Mercedes' drivers, or at least on P4. He should provide Red Bull with that strategic option, and for the first time can really play a part in the championship fight.

Timetable Spanish Grand Prix 2021

Friday

First free practice: 10:30 - 11:30

Second free practice: 14:00 - 15:00

Saturday

Third free practice: 11:00 - 12:00

Qualification: 14:00 - 15:00

Sunday

Race: 14:00 - 16:00