Theorem: Verstappen and Red Bull still have a long way to go for the title

Some were already dreaming of finally some resistance for Mercedes after the successful winter test in Bahrain two weeks ago. Many wanted to see what Red Bull Racing could do in the first qualifying session. Times set in the test mean very little, as we have seen in previous years.

When Max Verstappen crossed the line as the fastest this afternoon and will start from pole position tomorrow, it's not surprising that there was a lot of joy and enthusiasm. And already people are saying that the Dutchman can win his first title this year and Red Bull can win the first constructors' championship since 2013.

That's not just down to the team's strong start. Red Bull Racing hasn't had a strong start to the last couple of seasons, allowing Mercedes to pull away in the points and take the championship early. Towards the end of the season, Verstappen's team came back and the final races got really exciting again. Red Bull is very good at developing during the season itself, something Mercedes seem to be less good at.

It's Mercedes' turn now

But that is probably just an illusion. The reality is that Mercedes never really had to develop much during the season. As mentioned before, they have almost won the championship every time before Red Bull gets competitive. And in the years that Ferrari was competitive, Mercedes already came out as the better 'developer'. Although Verstappen is starting with a nice lead, the first points still have to be distributed - it's only qualifying after all - and we have no idea what Mercedes can change in the car.

The token system will make major changes more difficult, but one thing is for sure: it's going to be a long, long road for Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing on their way to the title.