Max Verstappen's big advantage in the 2025 world title race

Looking at the second half of the season, Red Bull Racing's points total did not bode well for the team and, thus, Max Verstappen. After the summer break, Red Bull Racing scored only 181 points. Far less than Ferrari (307) and McLaren (300) and even less than Mercedes (202) scored since the break.

Red Bull finished third among constructors for a reason and chose to address its 'biggest problem' by sacking Sergio Perez. Liam Lawson has to close the gap from first to second driver in order to score more points for the team. Closing the gap, however, is not necessary for Red Bull.

Why Verstappen has an advantage

Indeed, Helmut Marko and Christian Horner are very clear in what they expect from Liam Lawson. He needs to be within three-tenths of Verstappen to compete for the points in the race. If Verstappen drops out once, Lawson must bring in the points. Something Perez had not managed to do for a long time with the RB20.

Whether Lawson really takes that step will only become apparent during the 2025 season, but it should be clear that Red Bull is really opting for a structure with a first and a second driver. A situation the competition does not have. This gives a big advantage to Max Verstappen in the battle for the world drivers' title.

In fact, Verstappen will finish ahead of his teammate in 9 out of 10 cases. In past years, it was even 10 out of 10 cases. As a result, Verstappen scores the maximum number of points a Red Bull Racing driver can score. At McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, those proportions will differ in 2025.

Ferrari scored the most points in 2024 after the summer break, but Lewis Hamilton brings a huge challenge to Charles Leclerc. With a car capable of competing for the world title, Leclerc and Hamilton will give everything to beat the other. Given the qualities of both drivers, it will not be as much in favour of one driver here as at Red Bull Racing. The drivers are, therefore, at a disadvantage to Verstappen in their championship, as they also lose points in a year to their teammate.

Red Bull does need to give Verstappen a better car

The same problem presents itself at McLaren. Lando Norris was still the number one driver in 2024, but Oscar Piastri is starting his third season in F1. He is expected to make another move in 2025, putting the pair close together in terms of points. Norris already lost the duel several times in 2024; if that happens more often in 2025, he will lose even more ground on Verstappen.

A new duel also presents itself at Mercedes. There, George Russell has to prove himself as Mercedes' new leader with an expiring contract, while Antonelli, as a young talent, still has everything to win. The latter will be keen to prove himself against Russell, as the young Briton did alongside Hamilton in recent years. Given Antonelli's performance in the feeder series, that will not be an easy battle for Russell.

Despite this advantage of Verstappen, Red Bull Racing needs to deliver a better car than was the case at the end of 2024. Indeed, after the summer break, both Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris scored more points than Max Verstappen despite the internal struggles within their teams. Although Leclerc and Norris may face a bigger challenge in 2025 with the arrival of Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari and Oscar Piastri packed with more experience, respectively, Verstappen does need a car to come close to the duo to actually score enough points.