F1 Data Analysis | Is this the weekend where Red Bull get beaten?

Why Red Bull feared Singapore

Ahead of the Grand Prix at the Marina Bay Street Circuit, Red Bull Racing were already cautious. After winning all Grands Prix this F1 season and Verstappen managing to win 10 races in a row, the Austrian racing team stated that Singapore would be the biggest challenge of the year. As it turns out, that's true after the first two practice sessions.

The first free practice session is largely irrelevant to the rest of the weekend in Singapore. The street circuit has barely been rubbered in by then, and the meaningful sessions will take place in entirely different conditions. The second free practice is, therefore, all the more important. In that session, teams completed many laps. Both qualifying and race runs were completed. 

Who is the favourite for pole in Singapore?

Source: Formula 1

Over one lap, Ferrari reign supreme in Singapore for now. In FP1 and FP2, the Ferrari cars topped the timesheet. In the main session, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz were two-tenths faster than their nearest rival: George Russell. The Brit was one of the last to set a fast time, driving his time in the most favourable conditions.

So, the gap is considerable. Lewis Hamilton was four-tenths down, Fernando Alonso was just under four-tenths shy. Alonso has to do it alone, though. Teammate Lance Stroll was found in 14th place. The same goes for Lando Norris in P6. He was six-tenths behind. The Red Bulls are as far back as P7 and P8.

Perez is the fastest of the two Red Bulls but is just under seven-tenths short of Sainz's fastest time. Verstappen is slightly slower than Perez and is just over seven-tenths short of the fastest time. A gap you don't just close overnight.

Who has the highest top speed at the Marina Bay Street Circuit?

Red Bull don't have much room to play with regarding the setup. Their top speed over one lap is slower than Ferrari's. Once again, the Ferrari team are running particularly fast. Leclerc and Sainz both reach 314 km/h in their fastest lap, while Perez and Verstappen can't go faster than 310 km/h. If Red Bull wants/needs to run with even more downforce, they will lose straight-line speed.

Red Bull is not the slowest of the bunch, by the way. McLaren, for instance, ran just as fast, and Mercedes were still one kilometre per hour slower at the Speed Trap. Haas and Alfa Romeo also run as fast as Ferrari. That says something about Ferrari's (new) engine.

How is the long run pace in Singapore?

Longrun data FP2

Normally, Verstappen fans can breathe a sigh of relief when seeing the long run pace. Usually, in 2023, it shows that Red Bull are mainly focused on race pace and have an advantage when there is more fuel in the car. That does not appear to be the case this weekend. Red Bull don't hold the advantage here.

Almost everyone in the top eight completed their long run on the medium tyre. Norris opted for the soft tyre, only to swap it later for a hard tyre. Verstappen had an average lap time of 1.38.2 and an anomalous lap of 1.39.1. Not including the latter, the highest peak was 1.38.6. What is noticeable is that Perez seemingly felt better in the RB19. Perez completed laps between 1.38.0 and 1.38.4 on the same tyre.

Perez's pace still offers Red Bull hope when compared to Sainz's. Like Perez, the Spaniard achieved a 1.38.0, but only once. The run is very inconsistent, with an outlier of 1.38.8. Combined with the high tyre wear that Ferrari often suffers from, it makes the race a challenge for Ferrari.

In that respect, the Mercedes drivers will go to their hotel feeling good. Not only did Mercedes seem to be the second-fastest team over one lap, but Mercedes' long run pace was especially strong. George Russell drove a 1.38.1 as the fastest time and peaked at 1.38.6. It is more consistent than Sainz, especially in the low 1.38s. However, it will be very difficult for Mercedes to pass a Ferrari with the lack of top speed.

Fernando Alonso is also a standout. The Spaniard nestles between Mercedes drivers on a single lap and stands out, especially with a 313 km/h top speed. Normally, the Aston Martin car does not run this fast on the straight, but the top speed in the long run shows it was no slipstream. Indeed, without DRS, Alonso is the fastest among the top teams at 291 km/h. Even faster than Ferrari, whose DRS helps a lot in the qualifying run.

 

 

 

 

 

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Who is the favourite for the Singapore GP?

So Alonso has the top speed to attack, but long run pace is a question mark. Yes, Alonso did a 1.37.8 and a 1.37.9, but he also put in a 1.38.6 twice in return. So the pace is there, but how constant is the AMR23? Aston Martin will have to work on that from Friday to Saturday to give Alonso a good chance of victory.

Friday in Singapore shows that Red Bull Racing were right to fear this weekend. The Marina Bay Street Circuit simply doesn't suit the RB19, and Red Bull will have to find a solution for the setup, but closing this gap will be quite a challenge.

Ferrari are the favourites for pole position, who are in a class of their own over one lap. In the race, Ferrari have more opponents, but overtaking in Singapore is a lot harder than at Monza. A win for a non-Red Bull driver seems in the making, or will Red Bull's engineers and simulator drivers manage to pull a stunt from Friday to Saturday?