Also in longruns, Verstappen is not as dominant in Canada as previous races

Trouble in Montreal

The 2023 F1 season has so far been dominated by Red Bull Racing and mainly Verstappen. Almost every weekend, the Dutchman is calling the shots, but in Canada, things are not going quite as planned. Verstappen was still saying beforehand that he did not think the Monaco problems would resurface, but they have.

After the first free practice was watered down by a CCTV problem, a lot depended on the second free practice. 90 minutes were given to the drivers to find the optimal setup for qualifying and the race, and Verstappen has yet to find it. Over one lap, Verstappen was more than four-tenths short of Lewis Hamilton's fastest time. Admittedly driven later in the session, the Ferraris were also faster at the same time.

Verstappen said after the session that there is work to be done. The problems Red Bull had in Monaco are again playing tricks on the RB19. Speed on the straight is good, but Adrian Newey's car is struggling over the kerbs. You can see that over one lap, where Hamilton, Russell, Sainz, Alonso and Leclerc are faster than Verstappen. The thing that stands out, however, is the long run.

Verstappen's long run

All season, Red Bull has not been very dominant over one lap. Many qualifying sessions were won by a Red Bull driver but rarely was it by a huge margin. That will be different on Sunday. There, Perez and Verstappen degrade their tyres much less quickly and can run a much faster pace. At the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, that is not so bad for the time being.

In his long run on the medium tyre, Verstappen drives between 1.17.2 and 1.17.8. The run counts 16 laps after Verstappen is again one of the first to switch from qualifying to race runs. His teammate Perez emulates him in terms of programme, but not in terms of times. Perez drives between 1.17.6 and 1.18.5 in the twelve laps he runs.

Where competitors can normally only dream of this, this time they are closer than usual. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, for instance, drive a long run on the medium tyre around the same time. Leclerc drives between 1.17.1 and 1.18.1 and Sainz between 1.17.4 and 1.18.5. Times that match the Red Bulls' pace. That combined with the faster run over one lap, and you seem to have a serious challenger in Ferrari.

Fernando Alonso's run (between 1.17.1 and 1.17.9) cannot really be taken into account, as it was done much later in the session and the Spaniard also did far fewer laps on the medium. Alonso was longer with his qualifying run, which eventually earned him fourth place in the timesheet. Still, the times are similar to Verstappen's.

Mercedes is completely a big unknown in this story. Whereas everyone else opted for a qualifying run as usual and then a long run, Mercedes did the exact opposite. On medium, Hamilton drove a 15-lap long run between 1.18.0 and 1.19.0 at the start of the session. George Russell drove between 1.18.2 and 1.19.0 at the same stage. So a big difference between Red Bull and Ferrari, but in a different part of the session.

The speed is definitely there at Mercedes, as was shown by Hamilton and Russell's fast laps, which put them a tenth faster than first-placed Sainz and as much as four-tenths faster than Verstappen. For this, however, the reverse applies, as later in the session there was more rubber on the track and so you can also expect faster times.

RB19 fastest on the straight

So what about top speed? Well, they don't have to complain about that at Red Bull, as usual, this season. Indeed, although Hamilton gains four-tenths over a full lap by going faster through the chicanes, Verstappen still gains plenty of ground on the straight. In Verstappen's fastest lap, he reaches a top speed of 326 kilometres per hour. Hamilton gets no further than 322 km/h.

Carlos Sainz's fastest time reaches a top speed of 330 km/h, but the Spaniard clearly had a tow. Charles Leclerc's lap shows the true straight-line speed of the SF-23. Charles gets to 324 kilometres per hour. Fernando Alonso is the biggest target on the straight. His AMR23 runs no faster than 319 kilometres per hour.

For qualifying, predictions are a bit tricky. There is a good chance it will rain on Saturday and then all data in dry conditions can be binned. Over one lap Mercedes and Ferrari are now in a good position, but in the rain, it could be a very different story.

For Red Bull Racing, the message is clear: there is work to be done. With that, Verstappen already put his finger on the sore spot when he had just stepped out of the car. The car is still fast on the straight and very competitive in race pace, but the competition is closer than they would like. It is now up to Rudy van Buren's colleagues to do such a good job in the simulator that the RB19 feels much better again for Verstappen and Perez on Saturday.