McLaren and Alpine fight for P4: who is the favourite for this place of honour?

Alpine's results

Looking purely at the cars of the two teams, there should be no doubt: Alpine should come fourth. The Renault engine is very fast and the A522 is built to make good use of that speed on the straight. Alpine does not have a car for victories, but it has understood the new regulations quite well.

This is also reflected in the results. Across the year, there are very few races where no points are scored and usually sixth, seventh or eighth place are good points too. There are a few outliers, with fourth place in Japan for Esteban Ocon and three fifth places in Belgium, England (Alonso) and Austria (Ocon).

Alpine's pain point is reliability. For instance, GPblog already calculated that Fernando Alonso lost some 40 points due to stoppages. The Spaniard did not see the finish four times this year, not counting problems in other sessions and engine changes. Ocon had less bad luck but also crashed out twice.

Where does McLaren stand?

McLaren got off to a difficult start. After a strong winter test in Barcelona, things went completely wrong in Bahrain. The brakes did not work and the Woking-based team had not reckoned with porpoising either. A fourteenth and fifteenth place was the maximum achievable in the first race weekend.

Things improved over the season and the MCL36 got faster and faster. The car is also a lot more reliable than its competitors. In total, the two drivers only crashed out three times. One problem for the team, however, is that it was dependent on one driver for much of the season. Whereas at Alpine the qualifying duel is exciting and the drivers are close together in terms of points, Daniel Ricciardo has been unable to get close to Lando Norris for two years.

The Brazilian Grand Prix

In Mexico, McLaren and Alpine were surprisingly close in qualifying and the race. The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is at altitude and that took away some of the 'drag problems' McLaren has been struggling with all season. The difference was therefore limited and in the race McLaren even seemed to have an advantage. Of course, the fact that Alonso dropped out yet again also helped.

Although Interlagos is not at the same altitude as the circuit in Mexico (800 to 2,250 metres), the track in Brazil is also higher than most circuits and that affects the level of drag. Teams with a lot of downforce suffer less drag here. So there is a good chance McLaren will be close to Alpine again.

The problem, however, is the track layout. Whereas Mexico still consists for a relatively large part of corners, at Interlagos you are even more on top of your throttle. The run-up to the straight also ramps up, so power plays an important role. McLaren is at a disadvantage here.

So the proportions will be slightly more in Alpine's favour in Brazil. The race is at a slightly lower altitude and there is just a bit more demand on straight-line speed. Alonso will have to stunt though, as he is likely to get a new engine and associated grid penalty (again) after his failure in Mexico. However, with a sprint race, there is a good chance of moving up the grid.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

At the Yas Marina Circuit, Alpine has a clear advantage. Here there is no more racing at altitude and since the modifications to the circuit, it is really about power here. McLaren has not been strong on that kind of track this year, whereas Alpine has shone at tracks like Silverstone and the Red Bull Ring. The fact that it is also hard to overtake on Sundays with better race pace does not speak in McLaren's favour.

Conclusion

The top favourite for fourth place among the constructors is overwhelmingly Alpine. Although the Interlagos circuit can still somewhat hide the MCL36's weaknesses due to its altitude, Alpine clearly has the better car for Abu Dhabi with the A522. Moreover, it enters this duel with a seven-point lead and thus has a margin.

Alpine can additionally count on two strong drivers. Alonso as well as Ocon are capable of scoring points, where McLaren is largely dependent on Norris. Ricciardo scored another good result in Mexico, but given his past two seasons, chances are that this will be just one strong performance.

Alpine must be especially careful itself. This season, it has already failed too often and the team simply had too many reliability problems. Whereas McLaren usually crossed the finish line with two cars, Alpine too often did so with one or sometimes not even one. It will have to stay in one piece for two more races to rake in those extra millions from P4.