These are the possible replacements if Hamilton leaves Mercedes

Valtteri Bottas

Of course Valtteri Bottas has signed a nice contract at Alfa Romeo, but if Mercedes wanted him back to replace Hamilton, Bottas would be crazy not to. Alfa Romeo would play hardball, but could hardly deny Bottas an extended spell at Mercedes if such a situation arose.

Alfa Romeo would then have to look for a replacement for Bottas. They are looking for experience and maybe Mercedes could help them. With Stoffel Vandoorne they have a former F1-driver as a reserve driver and Nyck de Vries also has a lot of experience, although not in Formula 1. On the other hand, Alfa Romeo would have a chance to bring Antonio Giovinazzi back.

Esteban Ocon

Another option that is still open is Esteban Ocon. He too has been signed for a long period of time by Alpine, but as a former junior at Mercedes he will still be on Toto Wolff's radar. Ocon has the experience and Alpine might be interested in selling the Frenchman to Mercedes for a nice amount of money.

Alpine would then solve a luxury problem called Oscar Piastri. The 2021 F2 champion has to settle for a reserve role at Alpine in 2022, but of course he deserves a permanent seat in F1. If things can be moved around like this, it might not be a bad thing for Alpine.

Sebastian Vettel

If Mercedes is looking for an experienced man and figurehead alongside young talent George Russell, then Sebastian Vettel is their man. The German may not be one of the best drivers on the grid anymore and is certainly not the best in wheel-to-wheel battles, but as a signpost he would be great for the German team.

The ties between Mercedes and Aston Martin are close and so a possible deal could be arranged. However, when Vettel walked out of his contract at Ferrari, Mercedes didn't have an eye on the former world champion, so whether they think he's good enough now remains to be seen.

Nyck De Vries/Stoffel Vandoorne

The last and most unlikely solution is to promote one of the reserve drivers. Stoffel Vandoorne and Nyck de Vries have done well for Mercedes in Formula E, with De Vries winning a title there, while Vandoorne has the edge with his experience in Formula 1 at McLaren.

The chance that Mercedes, as a top team, will choose one of the two unproven talents is very small. Russell needed three years at Williams to prove himself to Mercedes' management, so an FE world title for De Vries and two invisible years in F1 for Vandoorne don't seem enough to qualify for an F1 seat at Mercedes.